The Official Unofficial Shad Countdown Thread

[goose70]

It's that time of year for me to make my uninvited, uncivilized, uncouth spinfishing appearance on this board to discuss all things SHAD. I figured that I'd start by sharing this encouraging report from the Virginia board.

http://www.tidalfish.com/forums/showthread.php/281945-Look-what-I-caught-in-the-gill-net-today

In our constant, neurotic, efforts to predict river levels, this NOAA site may come in handy this year: http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/index.html?region=Allegheny_Front&year=2010&month=3&day=4&units=e

As you'll see, it shows a lot of snow remaining in the western reaches of the Potomac drainage. I'm leery about what that will meaning for river levels later this month.

Now to the weightier questions of whether pink, orange, green or chartreuse will be the color this year, and whether Americans will make another early appearance.

P.S.: I predict the first Hickory at Fletchers will be caught on March 24.

[LarryLunker]

I am just as excited! After attending tiefest last weekend I was inspired to tie my own shad darts this year. Having never tied before, I figured this to be a good place to start for two reasons. One, in my experience shad will hit just about anything so long as its right in their face, leaving a large margin of error on my part. Second, at two bucks a pop and with getting hung up so often at fetchers its more economical.

Here is the site I always use to see the river level:
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/uv?site_no=01646500

March 24th you say? Sounds good to me!

Tom

[Salmo trutta]

The first few will show up and be caught the week of March 21st. Warming trends will give false hope of an early run but like usual, they'll show up right on schedule. The weekend of March 27th could be a good one but things won't kick into high gear until April. Then by May we'll be happy to see the hickories leave again. But still, I can't wait.

[jnashed]

I am thinking about 3 weeks the Rappahanock should be on fire, especially with the warm weather predicted. Water level are pretty high right now though.

Jim

[sunfish king]

Got your divorce lawyer on retainer??
I do....I'm ready!

[grover123]

Chartreuse will not be the color this year because it was last year and I have a box full of chartreuse colored shad flies. That's the way fly fishing works for me. I never have the right fly. The last two years I caught shad around the 24th on the Rapp. Jnashed is right, the Rapp is full now and when I was fly fishing in the mountains about a week ago there is still a bunch of snow out there. Wonder if it will slow their arrival?

[HJS]

The stage is being set real nice, things are looking good. The flow of the Potomac has been somewhat above average for several weeks, but with no significant flooding. Actually the flow couldn't be better for pulling the hickories up the river to Fletchers and beyond. Hard to believe that all that record breaking snow melted without causing a major flood. Now there's not enough snow left in the watershed to cause a major flood... as has happened in previous snowy years. Of coarse, one 4"-5" rain could easily change all that. Keep your fingers crossed. Only about 3 weeks to go before the first of the hickories start showing up.

[captmike84]

there was something flipping around in the middle of the river yesterday at fletcher's. I'm guessing herring? Probably only saw a dozen little tail flips but they're very disticive.

[HJS]

captmike - The first running of herring (alewife herring) in the Bay's rivers occurs around mid March. Seems this is never a big run, but a run nonetheless. So I bet that's what you may be seeing flipping around.

[mharton]

Saw a cormorant diving yesterday in Lake Accotink in Springfield. Just one. Maybe he's been there all winter. But maybe he's the tip of the spear. Haven't seen any over the Potomac yet.

[SteveL]

The link below is to the NOAA NWS Potomac river level prediction site--it tends to forecast higher levels (worst cast if higher water level is a concern) prior to the rain arriving, its more accurate after the rain has finished falling when the upriver hydrographs provide information that allows better forecasting of downstream levels:
http://newweb.erh.noaa.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lwx&gage=BRKM2
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/marfc/

Also this NOAA NWS site has rain predictions that may be helpful for shorter term planning (note that we are supposed to get several inches of rain over the next five days!):
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

I am eager to get out and catch some Potomac shad, and some of those jumbo white perch. Last season for the first time I fished for perch well downriver from Fletchers and got some very nice ones; I want to try more of that this season. I think the snow pack in much of the Potomac Basin will be mostly history after the moderate temps and the rains that are forecast for the next few days. Its only a guess what the river levels will be come April, it depends on the weather patterns and amount of precip in late March and April.

Although the Po river level is now over 5 ft at LF, its a very nice clear green color--but if we get inches of rain the river will look like chocolate milk.

[Salmo trutta]

Big rain coming in the next few days. I guess let’s get it over with now but I'd expect some big water coming our way soon. Too bad too because the river was at a perfect color and nice and high allowing for a lot of fishy looking places to fish near shore. I can't say after two days fishing this past weekend (report below a few threads) that the fishing was very good though. I couldn't catch a walleye to save my life.

Best of luck to everyone this spring.

I'm hoping to get a hold of a 2 HP Honda 4 stroke engine this spring. This thing weighs less than any trolling motor I've ever seen and doesn't require a battery that weighs 50 pounds. It could easily go on a canoe, john boat or a fletchers boat and run all day on a Gatorade bottle of gas. The amount of fishy looking structure both above and below fletchers is mind boggling. A fish finder helps you find it but most of it is very obvious with pronounced rips and eddies. Last year we caught American Shad well down in Georgetown! White perch are everywhere but I can never seem to find the larger ones or at least can't seem to do it with a fly rod or a 1/16 oz jig. Adding more weight than that for a 12 inch fish to a rod doesn't seem right to me. Most of the successful perch fishermen I've seen on that river fish bottom rigs with 1 to 3 oz of weight, two hooks and large minnows or smelt they catch from the river. They clean up on some monster size perch but a monster perch is 11 inches. The smelt run that occurs now or the same time as the other big fish runs is insane also. An average smelt is about 2 to 4 inches long and looks like a 3 inch opening night bass assassin or a lucky craft pointer 100 (the 100 stands for Centimeters). Shoals upon shoals of these minnows show up in every creek and trickle flowing into the river down there but I suspect they are year round residents.

March is a tease to us patient fishermen around the Beltway anxiously awaiting the arrival of our finned friends. A good essay written by Bill Heavey called "Water Torture" explains this well. Check it out. http://www.fieldandstream.com/photos/gallery/kentucky/2006/06/sportsmans-life-collected-columns-bill-heavey?photo=12

[HJS]

I just checked the NOAA flow predictor for Little Falls on the Potomac and its now predicting the river will rise to "major flood" for the DC waterfront. That's is in excess of 15'. This is not looking good.

http://newweb.erh.noaa.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lwx&gage=BRKM2

[Salmo trutta]

Good god! It was forecasting a little over 10' this morning. I don't think we've had high water over 12' in many years. Even the 10 inches of rain we got in early July 2006 the river didn't get that high.

I think all is not lost though. With a little luck and little rain after this weekend it could still come down to a fishable level by early April. We'd have to get pretty lucky but it could happen. The susky and the flats could be muddy throughout the whole C&R season from this rain but the Potomac clears considerably quicker.

I wonder if this will pull some fish up to Great Falls area. This could be the year we could catch shad in decent numbers under the falls. Heck, even stripers.

[HJS]

Yeah, this morning the prediction was around 10', so I guess NOAA had to made a few changes. The river up at Hancock continues to spike upward and Jennings Randolph is now dumping water bigtime.

On the other hand, the Susky is rising too but it's just now approaching "average flow". Its been flowing about 1/3 below average for the past several weeks. I think the Susky watershed missed one or two of the big snows we got here in MD.

As of 7:00pm, here in the Catoctin Mountains we've received only about an inch of rain so far, no big deal.

[saltfly]

You guys start catching them and chase them out of those fresh water river fast so they will get over here sooner. I like catching them here in the inlet. That won't start till May.

[Salmo trutta]

It's only predicted to get to 13' now. I guess it wasn't quite as bad as predicted. Especially around my area, Gaithersburg. I just got back from the Angling show and checked on a few streams on the way home. Watts Branch was up and muddy but still within its banks.

Western MD is in trouble though. The casselmen is over 3k cfs, the upper savage is at 2800 cfs but the lower savage is only around 275. I guess they are trying to refill the reservoir now. Should be able to do it by Sunday afternoon at this rate.

The water coming out of Jennings Randolf was cut back just now to 700 which it was up over a couple thousand.

The Yough is over 10000 cfs right now. Can you imagine the white water down from Sang Run right now?

We'll be shad fishing by March 25th. No worries.

[Salmo trutta]

We could be fishing as soon as Sunday but doubt anything really shows up until the 25th or 26th.

http://newweb.erh.noaa.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lwx&gage=brkm2&rssDate=1268898300

[captmike84]

Big rain coming in the next few days. I guess let’s get it over with now but I'd expect some big water coming our way soon. Too bad too because the river was at a perfect color and nice and high allowing for a lot of fishy looking places to fish near shore. I can't say after two days fishing this past weekend (report below a few threads) that the fishing was very good though. I couldn't catch a walleye to save my life.

Best of luck to everyone this spring.

I'm hoping to get a hold of a 2 HP Honda 4 stroke engine this spring. This thing weighs less than any trolling motor I've ever seen and doesn't require a battery that weighs 50 pounds. It could easily go on a canoe, john boat or a fletchers boat and run all day on a Gatorade bottle of gas. The amount of fishy looking structure both above and below fletchers is mind boggling. A fish finder helps you find it but most of it is very obvious with pronounced rips and eddies. Last year we caught American Shad well down in Georgetown! White perch are everywhere but I can never seem to find the larger ones or at least can't seem to do it with a fly rod or a 1/16 oz jig. Adding more weight than that for a 12 inch fish to a rod doesn't seem right to me. Most of the successful perch fishermen I've seen on that river fish bottom rigs with 1 to 3 oz of weight, two hooks and large minnows or smelt they catch from the river. They clean up on some monster size perch but a monster perch is 11 inches. The smelt run that occurs now or the same time as the other big fish runs is insane also. An average smelt is about 2 to 4 inches long and looks like a 3 inch opening night bass assassin or a lucky craft pointer 100 (the 100 stands for Centimeters). Shoals upon shoals of these minnows show up in every creek and trickle flowing into the river down there but I suspect they are year round residents.

March is a tease to us patient fishermen around the Beltway anxiously awaiting the arrival of our finned friends. A good essay written by Bill Heavey called "Water Torture" explains this well. Check it out. http://www.fieldandstream.com/photos/gallery/kentucky/2006/06/sportsmans-life-collected-columns-bill-heavey?photo=12

Yeah those little outboards are a lot of fun. I have a '68 3 hp Evinrude that I want to put on a 12' jon boat and use out of fletcher's. They're a lot of fun for a gallon of gas. I'm going to hit the river tomorrow and see what happens. The gauge is less than 7' now and continuing to fall so if it continues I'll be out there.

[Salmo trutta]

Any cove on high tide or just highish water that offers some calm water will hold good numbers of largemouth right now. Fletchers is one of them. Plus some HUGE crappie. That's a fishery I'm sure a lot of shad fishermen don't know exist. It's strange to have Largemouth bass in that water because it's near some very fast water but they are there. You just might do pretty well this weekend. I'm humping 3500 bags of mulch with my son's Boy Scout troop this weekend. I hope that gives me some brownie points to allow me to disappear into the eddies of the Potomac for much of April.

[captmike84]

I'll let you know how it goes.

[captmike84]

Went both Saturday and Sunday. Didn't catch anything but the herring are definitely showing up. Fletcher's cove had all kinds of little herring jumps in it and there were some cormarants around. It was really difficult to fly fish with the water so high. Wading was ridiculous as I couldn't see where I was stepping and it was ripping so I was forced away from the spots I wanted to fish.

[The Old Man]

Capt Mike:

I wouldn't recommend wading at Fletchers unless the water level is below 4', and even then I wouldn't recommend it at all...people die there every year (and no, I'm not making that up). So unless you have VERY low and clear water, it's not a safe place to wade.

Don't want anyone on this board ending up as a statistic. Be safe.

[HJS]

Yeah, what TOM said. Wading there is extremely risky. However, I will wade there using hipboots when the water is clear enough to see bottom where I'm putting my feet. I was tempted to go this weekend but its still a little too early to expect much in the way of hickory action. Maybe early next week.

Capt Mike - How clear was the water at Fletchers? I was up at Dam4 today and visibility there was about 12"-14". (Caught nothing) The river there really got high this last flood... and its still flowing heavy. For those who have driven to Dam4 on the MD side, the debris line indicated water was about 2 feet deep in the road. I'm guessing the top of the guard rail was just about under water.

[captmike84]

That's why i didn't do any wading except back in the cove itself. I don't screw around with that place. The water probably had about 14" of visibilty. Hopefully the rain this week won't make it any worse.

[Salmo trutta]

Fletchers updated the report!!!! Any day now, any day now.
http://www.fletcherscove.com/fishing_report.htm


As for wading....If you can't see bottom, don't wade. The problem with the cove is that it's all silt and soft mud. You'll sink up to your waste in a matter of seconds if you try and wade it very far. It's one thing to get your feet wet to give you a better vantage point, but another to take blind steps near dangerous ledges and fast currents.

[Lee Crenshaw]

Shad hitting well in the capital city, 4 large hicks on in about 20 mins. 14th st bridge

[Jaybr]

Shad hitting well in the capital city, 4 large hicks on in about 20 mins. 14th st bridge

Excellent news, I think I'll give them a try in the Appomatox in Petersburg tomorrow afternoon.

[SteveL]

I paddled a whitewater kayak tonight on the Po at Anglers (9 miles upstream from Fletchers)--the air was chilly but the water was warmer than the air. Water level was 5.2+ at LF (it dropped from 5.5 this morning), around one foot visibility, temp at 54 degrees F. I saw a carp roll in an eddy, great stuff. I think things are setting up really well for the shad run as long as we don't get too much rain and more runoff soon. Next week is April 1!!!

If you ever choose to wade the Potomac in the spring you should wear a pfd. Wading in the summer in the areas well upriver from tidewater you can skip the vest if you can swim well, but wading near Fletchers during spring runoff conditions you should have floation. An average of 7 people per year for the past 35 years have drowned in the Potomac between Great Falls and Fletchers, the currents are deceptively powerful even in flowing flatwater.

[ZMI]

were u wading at the bridge, how was the current?

[chesapeakeblend]

stopped by fletchers yesterday. hickories are starting to show up in real small numbers according to staff. water was swift and muddy.

mike