Uh Oh

[goose70]

Alaskan oil reserves are 90% less than the previous, 2002 estimate. Not that this is a huge surprise for those of us who actually follow this stuff, but it sure puts a damper on the "drill baby drill" party. Might want to stay in "cruising speed" a bit more often next time you're on the boat....

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/10/27/alaskas-untapped-oil-reserves-estimate-lowered-90-percent/?hpt=T2

Of course, the much bigger shoe to drop will be when it is finally revealed that the Saudis have been similarly over-confident in their reserve estimates.

[gwag]

The sky is falling ,run . We should close all schools , all shopping malls ,ban private transportation and let the govt. take care of us . Obama will bring our groceries to us and pay all our bills out of his stash. Don't worry goose we are all going to bow down now to our beloved leader, I mean after all he did teach us the importance of bowing to our superiors during his world apology tour.

[goose70]

Or, we could take the common sense, easy measures before the sky really is falling, and by doing so, perhaps avoid the "falling sky" scenario altogether. As a green home builder, I'd think that you would agree.

[BayViews]

Amazing! Its really blows me away that the federal government changed their projection by 90%. The size of that possible error is just staggering. I does not breed confidence in government statistics.

[goose70]

I think that it's simply a result of having more test areas in places where oil was once presumed to be (using older search technology).

It does go to show, however, just how little we know about where the oil is and how much we have left.

[BILL H]

I would always be skeptical about estimates of "undiscovered" oil reserves.
As Don Rumsfeld said on a totally unrelated topic:

"Now what is the message there? The message is that there are known "knowns." There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say there are things that we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we do not know we don't know. So when we do the best we can and we pull all this information together, and we then say well that's basically what we see as the situation, that is really only the known knowns and the known unknowns. And each year, we discover a few more of those unknown unknowns."

[uncljohn]

leave it to gwag to say something worthless. Was he blaming Obama for the overestimate of oil reserves, or is he blaming him for the current estimates?

Remember Goose, if you aren't walking to work and washing your clothes in the river, then YOU ARE THE PROBLEM! There's no middle ground in gwag world.

[BILL H]

After putting GWAG on my ignore list, my last couple of visits to my doctors have shown a surprising reduction in my BP readings.:thumbup:

[C-Hawk18]

After putting GWAG on my ignore list, my last couple of visits to my doctors have shown a surprising reduction in my BP readings.:thumbup:

If some fisherman's posts on an internet bulletin board about conservation was causing your BP to go up you need to be on a different medication.

[BILL H]

Didn't know you were a doctor. Thanks for the advice, but I think I'll stick with the holistic approach.

[uncljohn]

If some fisherman's posts on an internet bulletin board about conservation was causing your BP to go up you need to be on a different medication.

Gwag isn't a fisherman as far as I can tell. He also has no business being on a board with the word "Conservation" in its title.

[gwag]

Unclejohn could not be hunting he is to busy making stupid statements about some one he does not know. Obviously you can't be in a deer stand with your computer and expect to kill much of any thing. my statement to goose is just to vent my frustration with people reporting ever little piece of info as if it were gospel ,for every report of not enough there is a report of abundance, for every report of global warming there is report of global cooling . No one really knows the answer to any of the questions concerning the amount of oil available they can speculate, yet we are always exploring ,so who knows we could find another field the size of Saudi Arabia . I am all for conservation , but I will always defend my self against the pious know it all's who believe only they know what is best for our country. If my comments effect you at least you are thinking.

[fly flinger]

“The sky is falling ,run . We should close all schools , all shopping malls ,ban private transportation and let the govt. take care of us . Obama will bring our groceries to us and pay all our bills out of his stash. Don't worry goose we are all going to bow down now to our beloved leader, I mean after all he did teach us the importance of bowing to our superiors during his world apology tour.”

The basic fact about oil is that they aren’t making it as fast as we are consuming the stuff. As the third world nations become more prosperous the demand and consumption of oil will geometrically increase. This rapid expenditure of a finite source means depletion will come faster than the technology necessary to wean us off of oil. Population is the enemy of Mother Earth. The planets natural resources are finite but homo studipdist can’t control his procreation urges and is on a mindless consumption binge.
Oh, our president has tried to keep the USS United States on course and up to speed but with an elephant sea anchor it’s been a tough voyage so far.

[gwag]

The world's leading naval architects and engineers worked on the Titanic , no way the cream of the crop could be wrong.

[goose70]

The world's leading naval architects and engineers worked on the Titanic , no way the cream of the crop could be wrong.

Isn't that the point of this finding and of my post? That even our best efforts to assess petrol reserves are filled with uncertainty? Let me ask you this: when planning your finances, do you look at what money you have and what money you are likely to make in the furture based on your best, reasonable estimate, or do base your planning on winning the lottery?

[uncljohn]

I am all for conservation , but I will always defend my self against the pious know it all's who believe only they know what is best for our country. If my comments effect you at least you are thinking.

I'm sure you're convinced that YOU know what is best for our country. Sounds pretty pious to me.

I certainly don't have to know someone to be able to understand the point they are trying to make. Sky is falling. Naval architects built the Titanic. Walk to work.

[fly flinger]

To get back on subject: Oil has become the opiate of choice for producing energy that drives the world's economies. Coal comes in a close second. This speeding mud ball circling a minor star is the only place homo sapiens can call home. As we used to say in the Navy, 'you don't take a dump in your mess kit." But, that is exactly what's has taken place. The emissions from petrol powered devices have furthered a world crisis looming just over the horizon.

Big oil ALWAYS pushes the reserve estimates high in order to get the political permits to drill, and the investor's confidence. It's a shell game. Once the oil is gone this planet will dramatically change for the worst. Trees will vanish under cooking pots, desertification will run rampant, and the rush to obtain clean water will be the opening of round one in WW 111.

Gentlemen: throwing barbs back & forth does not further the discussion towards a mutual understanding of each others beliefs. Respectful discourse is what's missing in today's political arena. In the US we are yelling pass each other trying to make sound bites for the evening news. I suggest that we all re-read our posts and ask ourselves if we would have made the same statements face-to-face?

Semper paratus

[27 sailfish]

I think people in Alaska do not pay taxes - in part due to income from oil.

Want to bet if they are required to pay taxes - that suddenly new oil will be found ?

Sooner or later - someone will start producing a cheap solar powered car. Next will be solar panels for the house. There are other power sources as well.
Only losers will be the big oil companies.

Right now - solar is too expensive.

[fly flinger]

I think they also get royalties from all their natural resources and federal aid to boot.

Alaskans also voted against a clean water bill so the Pebble Mine (Canadian Gold consortium) project in Bristol bay could move forward. Once that huge earthen dam holding toxic acids is built across an earthquake zone you can say goodbye to the prolific salmon runs. As Sarah says: "dig baby dig."

http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2062

[gwag]

Currently it is impossible to judge future income due to the corrupt idiots in public office, so I just work hard and trust in the good Lord to provide. I see Obama is doing his part for conservation by taking 800 of his closest friends along with the wicked witch and her spawn on an all expense paid vacation to India,he really cares about energy conservation . What a sad excuse for a US president ,it is disgusting.

[CSLUG]

Currently it is impossible to judge future income due to the corrupt idiots in public office, so I just work hard and trust in the good Lord to provide. I see Obama is doing his part for conservation by taking 800 of his closest friends along with the wicked witch and her spawn on an all expense paid vacation to India,he really cares about energy conservation . What a sad excuse for a US president ,it is disgusting.

BAwahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!! You think going to India is a vacation.......

Clearly you haven't been there......

[fly flinger]

gwag:

I'm having a very hard time finding anything worthwhile in your many posts on this website. I thought the purpose of Tidalfish was to promote camaraderie amongst anglers. You seem to want to make this a platform for shouting out your discomfort with the current administration in DC. I would respectfully suggest that there are many other forums for you to make your views known to birds of a like feather. Making disparaging remarks about the First lady and the First family's children is juvenile and does nothing to improve your image here.

FYI:
(Reuters) - Touted as a visit with an emerging economic power, U.S. President Barack Obama's trip to India in November will also be about how New Delhi deals with that elephant in the room - the Pakistan-Afghanistan conundrum.

After nine years of war, there are signs the United States and President Hamid Karzai are reaching out to talk to the Taliban, and New Delhi wants to ensure any eventual settlement protects India from the risk of militant groups on its doorstep.

That could mean India reaching out for regional initiatives to ensure a stable Afghanistan, including closer ties with Iran and Russia -- all Afghan neighbors worried about the Taliban in their backyard - if Washington cuts and runs.

His visit is very important for the future of our over extended military and their families and the huge deficit due in part to the defense budget. May I ask the next time you consult your god, ask that this war be finished so all the people involved can get back to living a healthy, vibrant life.

[chrisdetweiler]

Currently it is impossible to judge future income due to the corrupt idiots in public office, so I just work hard and trust in the good Lord to provide. I see Obama is doing his part for conservation by taking 800 of his closest friends along with the wicked witch and her spawn on an all expense paid vacation to India,he really cares about energy conservation . What a sad excuse for a US president ,it is disgusting.

Good point. Our former president would never waste american tax dollars on a pointless endeaver, with the possible exception of the Iraq War.

As for topics such as Global Warming and the World Oil Supply, I rely on SCIENTISTS, not politicians or religious leaders for information.

I don't know how quickly these issues will impact society, but as the proud father of a 9 week old baby girl, I have great concern for both. These are not only environmental issues, they are national security issues. I don't understand why everyone, regardless of political affiliation, doesn't work together to address these these problems and work towards a solution. They are real and will only become more serious every year we fail to act.

[gwag]

Cslug Please think before you type,many people dream of an exotic vacation to India . If it was important for obama to go to India ,he should go by himself with a small security detail ,I dont need to pay for his wife and spawn and 800 other people to enjoy the exotic vacation . The people going will not be staying in the gutters of Calcutta ,they will be wining ,dining and seeing the sights ,all on our tax dollars . I have never been for these wars ,they are waste of lives and treasure. The current military actions do not qualify as war because as usual the politically correct idiots in charge have the soldiers hands tied behind their backs. We should go to war and kill everything from a cur dog to a shithouse rat(loose quote from Patton) , we are seen as losers who are afraid to fight ,we fight people who behead their captives ,then arrest a soldier who shot a pistol off near a enemies ear . The soldier in question should have started at the knee cap and then worked his way up.My rants are brought on when I read the constant stream of drivel on here , every news report is taken as valid and then the usual suspects start whining that we are running out of oil or they want to blame every one but themselves for the condition of the bay . Its always the conservatives fault and the only salvation is some ridiculous liberal idea that winds costing alot of money or ends up taking away my freedom.

[fly flinger]

“ The current military actions do not qualify as war because as usual the politically correct idiots in charge have the soldiers hands tied behind their backs. We should go to war and kill everything from a cur dog to a shithouse rat(loose quote from Patton) , we are seen as losers who are afraid to fight ,we fight people who behead their captives ,then arrest a soldier who shot a pistol off near a enemies ear . The soldier in question should have started at the knee cap and then worked his way up.
The “military” tactics you suggest were used by the Japanese, Germans, and Russians. How did that work out? Do you think for one moment if Dick Cheney had undergone water boarding he would’ve been a champion of that excess? I have to think you have not served our country in uniform. People who promote your kind of logic have no clue what life is like when you’re a target.
From now on I’m ignoring your posts as they are a waste of expensive bandwidth and urge others who visit this board to do the same. Have a nice Halloween in your pointed white sheet with burning cross accouterment.
PS: spell check is F7

Semper paratus

[gwag]

Fly finger you are a joke and who really gives a rats ass what you think or who you ignore , I served on the USS Stump DD 978 .You have stated exactly what the problem with our mititary is, they are targets and not agressive fighting units,they have been sent to a hell hole and are being used as targets ,while obama cow tows and bows to his muslim masters . The military despises obama and feel like they are being used as pawns.

[Brandon]

gwag (http://www.tidalfish.com/forums/member.php/150990-gwag)

Here is the deal, this is a fishing website. The conservation and policy board is to talk about fisheries policy and conservation issues, not to run a political bashing campaign. If you are here to run any sort of political bashing campaign you are on the wrong website. Further, calling people a joke does nothing positive for anyone nor the positive spirit of which debate takes place.

Please cease all your political agenda posts on TidalFish.com. If you want to blow off some steam visit the TidalFish.com BS board or another site.

Thanks!
Brandon

[uncljohn]

Did I just read that the BS Board is open for blowing off steam? Obviously that's where most of gwag's posts belong. Again, slight difference between "conservative" and "conservationist". But hey, most of those details are overlooked by gwag and his followers.

And thank god for the current people in office. When repubs were in charge 2 years ago, my 401k and other investments were down about 50%. Thanks Bush economic policies!

Now that Obama is in office and the economy has stopped its slide, I'm back up above pre-2007 levels. Future earnings will only go up! Of course, if we rehash the economic policies of the previous administration, that could change. I would also like to thank Obama for his middle-class tax cut that put extra $ in my paycheck each week. Most naysayers are clueless to this fact, and they are also clueless in thinking that tax cuts for the richest 1% would = tax cuts for them. Of course, everyone in the GOP thinks they are rich. Take Joe the Plumber, for instance......

[paxfish]

Now that Obama is in office and the economy has stopped its slide, I'm back up above pre-2007 levels.

I agree. On paper, I'm about back to where I was in 2007. Reality is a bit different though.

You realize of course that each dollar is worth significantly less, right?

[goose70]

In 1937, Republicans, inspired by former President Herbert Hoover, successfully pushed to end or curtail many ongoing stimulus measures enacted by the Roosevelt administration. The U.S. economy promptly fell back into a deep recession. At the same time, Great Britain (for example), with a very similar economy and having enacted similar economic measures, chose to keep its stimulus measures in place. Its economy did not fall back into recession (although it had that unfortunate war a few years later that brought the good times to a halt).

From about 1950 through most of the 70s, Americans paid higher taxes and the government spent more (relatively speaking) than just about any other time in history. The result was more wealth among more Americans -- and a steadily increasing standard of living -- than any time in our country's history. The mood then, as I understand it, was a rejection of the social Darwinism that nearly destroyed our nation in the early 20th century, and a feeling that investing in public resources (infrastructure, education, healthcare) was wise and patriotic. Both Republicans and Democrats shared in this expansion and the policies that caused it.

Obviously, this is an oversimplification of history, but it sets up the point regarding oil and even fisheries. We now all seem to want something for nothing. I can reduce my petrol usage right now, without any meaningful sacrifice to my standard of living and likely in a manner that actually enhances that standard of living. But I just don't feel like doing that. I don't want anyone telling me what to do. I'd rather ask other people to find me some more oil, whatever they have to do to do it. Attitudes like this cause things like a proliferation of insanely inefficient gas guzzling boats and vehicles bought by people who have absolutely no need for such things, but who buy them simply because they can. This, in turn, spills over into fisheries, where anglers demand that any sacrifice to save a dwindling fishery be made first by someone else, or who blatantly poach over the 3-mile limit because they resent some authority telling them what to do, or simply because they can.

Frankly, I see little difference between extreme right-wing push towards a feeble government and deregulation and the extreme left-wing anarchists who show up outside my office to demand a collapse of capitalism and civilization. Both are really working towards the same end, whether or not they appreciate that fact.

[BILL H]

I agree. On paper, I'm about back to where I was in 2007. Reality is a bit different though.

You realize of course that each dollar is worth significantly less, right?
About 7 percent less (inflation reported at about 2.28% annually over those years, largely due to the sucky economy). Of course, if the economy had not stopped its slide and uncljohn's portfolio had not recovered somewhat, the difference in purchasing power would have been even greater.

[gwag]

Nov 2 was a breath of fresh air

[paxfish]

About 7 percent less (inflation reported at about 2.28% annually over those years, largely due to the sucky economy). Of course, if the economy had not stopped its slide and uncljohn's portfolio had not recovered somewhat, the difference in purchasing power would have been even greater.

I dispute those numbers. The fact is, gasoline prices came down significantly during the last several years, which has severely distorted the true inflation story.

Bought a tire lately? 50% increase since 2007. How about a fishing lure? Fireline?

I'm betting that on the whole, a dollar is worth about 15 to 20% less than just a few years ago.

[Alley Cat]

I dispute those numbers. The fact is, gasoline prices came down significantly during the last several years, which has severely distorted the true inflation story.

Bought a tire lately? 50% increase since 2007. How about a fishing lure? Fireline?

I'm betting that on the whole, a dollar is worth about 15 to 20% less than just a few years ago.Energy and food are taken out of the government inflation numbers, the main things we need to purchase. Go figure.

[Alley Cat]

Thanks Jim,
It sounds like recovering this oil will be a massive and expensive effort, it makes you wonder if this type of effort on other fronts such as hydrogen fuel cells would not produce better results. Hydrogen is the most plentiful element in the universe and the fuel cell is already here. Hydrogen is a way of storing electricity for future use and is usually produced by separating the hydrogen and oxygen atoms in waters with elect. By combining the hydrogen with oxygen thru the fuel cell we produce elect. and water vapor.
What is needed is the infrastructure to produce and distribute the hydrogen and give our economy a big boost at the same time.

[Alley Cat]

We have to get the Fosil Fools off their asses! That is hard to do with the amount of lobbying money out there!

[gwag]

We need to access all available fossil fuel asap and fund advanced research on alternatives . I would love to see hydrogen . The funding could come from a reduction in the ridiculous social programs that are rampant through out the federal gov. We need not fear lobbyist dollars from the oil companies ,they know the gig is up and are funding their own research for the next big thing ,they want to make money ,remember they are afterall the "greedy big oil companies" We need to fear being sold out by political interest trying to influence their re-election by ignoring and changing our laws to buy voting blocks of illegals . MIllions more people mean exponetially more energy consumption.