Shad Fest in Jeaopardy?

[The Old Man]

I hate spelling errors in the title, can't be fixed...

River levels could be an issue on Saturday...Fletcher's won't rent boats about 4.5', right?

Keep an eye on it...

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[goose70]

Where did you find that prediction graph? Pretty cool.

Incidently, water shot WAY up at Paw Paw, so a lot is coming down. I'd think that your prediction graph is optimistic.

[kiko13]

The Upper at Point of Rocks is predicted to be 11.7 by tomorrow morning, .7 over flood stage. Summer flow is around 1.7.....

The Washington Channel is muddy (I can see from my window) and I rarely see that.

Ernie

[Flying Fish]

Doug: Fletcher's rents boats below 5'. Doug got the graph from me, and I got it from the fletcherscove.com site, click on links.

FF

[HJS]

Heres the link. (See if I can do this right):

http://newweb.erh.noaa.gov/images/ah...s/brkm2_hg.png

I've been checking this flow site for the past year or so and their forecast for flows for the lower Potomac is supprisingly accurate.

[HJS]

The flow forecast graph has been updated a few times but really hasn't changed much. The weather for Saturday is looking very good, but the flow with be a close call. Extrapolating the curve line, it looks like flow might be hovering around 5' by Saturday morning.

[The Old Man]

Yeah, and I'll tell ya what, the river look slike HELL right now....way up into the woods at Chain Bridge, big trees and limbs, 6' standing waves...by the looks of things, I can't imagine it'll be good by Saturday

[Salmo trutta]

But it's coming down like expected. Could be fishable by Saturday. I don't know if they will rent boats but if you only plan on fishing fletchers cove or down, I'm sure it wouldn't be a problem around 5'. I can assure anywhere from fletchers down is very calm. There are a few rock piles that might create some added turbulence but nothing to worry about. Yes, shad can be caught well below fletchers too.

With a little luck this high water might have pushed some fish up above the little falls rapid and maybe even up above Little Falls dam. Sebastian and I did a little exploring last year, it might be time to do that again. Maybe we went a little late last year or maybe we didn't fish late enough? Who knows but maybe there's something to find out that's still a secret to the rest of the world.

Spring will spring again this weekend and will come on like a Lion so get out there as that water rises 15 degrees F in three days. The fish are going to all spawn at once and night time at fletchers next week is going to look like an episode from Planet Earth.

[DF]

I'm otherwise committed for this weekend, but I think youse guys should all still show up anyway. New days, and permission slips can always be scheduled, but there are simply not enough such group events to justify scrapping this one. If the water's too high, have a "Fly-in". You'd be better off showing up with food and beverage, and tying flys on your tailgates and testing each other's shooting lines than sacrificing a planned day that you won't get back.
That said, I'm looking forward to the reports and photos.
Good luck this weekend, whatever the conditions.
DF

[The Old Man]

River still looks like sh*t this morning, water is 2' over the platform level and dirty brown. Graph predicts it's still well above 5' on Saturday and maybe even Sunday, so Fletcher's may not be renting boats even by Sunday....and I cannot imagine that the water quality will be any good, I mean it REALLY looks like chocolate milk still this morning.

Dennis, I'm with ya', but I'm more inclined to bail out at the river and fish for largemouth or bluegill somewhere else than not fish at all. My fishing chits are precious.

I'm thinking we can safely say, unfortunately, that ShadFest will have to wait until next year.

Hell if I won't be put there a few days next week when things look a little better, though....

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