OI WX - I'm confused!

[capehaze]

!#@$# Weather forecasts!
Planning a trip out of OI this weekend. Of course the predictions get worse as the time gets closer - and I have to go on weekends.
...But who do you believe? The Nags Head Sat/Sun prediction is for a 30% isolated Tstorms and <10 kt SSW wind. The marine forecast opts for 20 kts and 5-7 foot seas. Guess I will keep watching the forecasts to see if by some chance they converge. Have to decide early since I am a 9 hour tow away.
Well, now I vented but it didn't help much... Need to get some fishing in, but don't want to waste a trip!

Woody

[CaptNemo]

i'm going through the same thing, fishweather has it in the 15-20 kt range, noaa has it at 10-15 with 3-5'. weather.com has it <10kt.

I imagine it will all converge on the high side as we get closer.

[hd232]

MARINE...
HIGH PRES IS RIDGING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE N THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING LIGHT ELY WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AND ARE 5 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WED WITH TROUGH OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE WATERS FROM THE SE. E/SELY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED
AFTERNOON AND WED NIGHT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES ALLOWING SEAS TO
BUILD. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR WINDS TO GET UP TO 20 KT MOST
WATERS WITH 20 TO 25 KT CENTRAL WATERS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. GFS
THE STRONGEST OF THE GUIDANCE AND WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS UP TO 10
FT LATE WED NIGHT AND THU BUT CAPPED AT 8 FT AS NOT GOING AS
STRONG WITH THE WINDS AS THE GFS. RAISED SCA ACROSS WATERS S OF
OREGON INLET BEGINNING LATE WED EVE. PAMLICO SOUND MAY SEE A
PERIOD SCA CONDITIONS WED NIGHT AND THU AS WELL BUT GUIDANCE
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME AND WILL WAIT FOR BETTER CONFIDENCE WITH
FUTURE MODEL RUNS. WATERS N OF OREGON INLET WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP 4 PERIOD...MAINLY WITH SEAS TO 6 FT...BUT
THIS IS TOO FAR OUT TO ISSUE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. THE TROUGH
DISSIPATES INLAND THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGING
ACROSS THE WATERS AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY MID DAY FRI. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE S/SWLY FLOW
EXPECTED FRI AND SAT WITH A WEAK FRONT REMAINING N OF THE AREA.
LOW PRES LIFTS INTO THE NE SAT WITH A TRAILING FRONT EXPECTED TO
PUSH S ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUN. COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
SUN ESPECIALLY IN THE NLY SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ156-158.

wport/Morehead Center

[hd232]

Another site FYI:
WindGURU: United States - NC - Cape Hatteras

[capehaze]

I think the WX is also confused, but it looks bleak....
Roger on the WindGuru... Got that one bookmarked along with a bunch more... You can invert their * rating for fishing ;) No stars the beginning of the week, but now its good for the surfers.
If only I didn't have to work for a living and lived closer!

Woody