Official 11-12 winter outlook

[LILY]

Happy Holidays everyone. I'm going to make this a short version that I will update as the winter goes on.

Let me start off with the type of pattern we are currently in for this winter. (LA NINA). La Niña is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, compared to El Niño, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. In the U.S., winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the Southeast, and cooler than normal in the Northwest.

Typical La Niña Impacts
La Niña tends to bring nearly opposite effects of El Niño to the United States — wetter than normal conditions across the Pacific Northwest and dryer and warmer than normal conditions across much of the southern tier. The impacts of El Niño and La Niña at these latitudes are most clearly seen in wintertime. In the continental U.S., during El Niño years, temperatures in the winter are warmer than normal in the North Central States, and cooler than normal in the Southeast and the Southwest. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the Southeast and cooler than normal in the Northwest.


Our weather this year is based off a weak LA NINA signal which will cause alot of ups and downs and flipping of weather patterns. There will be more ice than snow as the southeast rigde will not be suppressed by the Greenland Block. The NOA is currently in a positive postion, which causes the blocking that allows troughs in the east to sustain and stick around for weeks at a time. However, this winter there is no blocking as of yet, so we will continue to see some what tranquil mild weather. Now there will periods of cold air for a few days from time to time but overall from now til mid Jan it will be above average. If the block was in place like it has been over the last 2 winters the cold would come and stay for a while. With this pattern we will see the trough set up more back towards the ohio valley and the strong southeast ridge acting as a block to our south which will turn the storms north towards the lakes (LAKE CUTTERS) snow lovers hate that term because it puts us on the warm side of winter storms. This means shallow cold air in place. We will have storms that will start as snow or ice but quickly change to rain as it warms up.

Now a break down of JAN-FEB-MAR

JAN--Will start out with some cold as we open 2012 but that will quickly flip as we see a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event over the north pole. Now for us this means we will see a blow torch (ABOVE AVG.TEMPS) starting early Jan and lasting about 2 1/2 weeks. You will see and hear about how cold it will be in Washington-Idaho-Montana-Oregon. When you have these events it will bottle up some very cold arctic air during this period and then unleash it on the United States. With our current pattern that means when it flips the West will see it first, then hopefully it will spread eastward into our neck of the woods. So the last 10 of Jan. should be back to normal to below normal.

FEB- Will start cold and stay cold til mid month. This will depend alot on whether or not the NAO tanks like it should and create the blocking we need for the cold to set up shop in our area. If this does not happen than the cold air will modify and slide out of town. Then for later in the month I see another flip to warmer weather. Late Jan. thru mid Feb. will be our best shot at a BIBLICAL SNOWSTORM

MAR- As of now the early indications are that March will be cold to start and then flip back to warm as the month goes on. This will be a very wet month with above precip. FEB-MARCH will see a possibility of ice storms.


APR- Will be cooler than normal but as of now it looks to be a dry month early. I will update more on April as I dont consider this a winter month but its important to know the upcoming weather for our Spring Trophy Season. It looks as of now we mioght have a good chance at some clean water this spring and a good C&R Flats season, as the the last 2 have been muddy and cold.

Overall: I see this winter as a 'DUD" for snowlovers here in central Maryland. Especially the guys and girls who own landscaping companies and depend on some snow to plow during the winter months for extra income to get them thru the winter months.

It will be a boring winter for 2011-2012. Now let me tell that there will be times of bad winter weather, ice, snow wind, cold. Just overall it will be a tranquil winter here in Central Maryland.

However, as I look at some global stats over the last couple of weeks, I will tell you enjoy this tranquil winter because the winters of 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 will be like the winters most of us grew up with. Very Cold and Very Snowy --aka ( the winters of 1950's and 1970's)

Again I will continue to make updates to this post and you may comment on this post as we move along thru the winter of 2011-2012

Happy Holidays to my TidalFish Family and God Bless!!

Be Safe

Phil (lily)

PS: I will be adding MAPS, IMAGES, etc on this post as I update it. I'm currently working on a weather link for everyone to enjoy and follow. Look for my updates on these items as my IT guy is currently working on them for you all to enjoy!! Merry Xmas

[Hookin-Up]

Pretty much what Im seeing too...

[Old Hat]

Yep pretty much what my crystal ball tells me.....

[wino]

Florda weather is very warm little humidity and above average winds. If the wind would stop the fishing is red hot now with reports of Sailfish, kingfish, and blackfin tuna, a few miles offshore. Prediction for Xmas day is 81.

[Gitzit 2]

thanks for the outlook, Phil.

i look forward to this each winter.

might not winterize the boat this winter in hopes of open water in the creeks to launch.

Merry Christmas!

[LILY]

Wino. You are going to bake this winter. I hope to jump on a plane and head south in Feb-Mar? I agree I have been down many times in Feb. and the NE winds always are blowing.

Merry Xmas

Phil (lily)

[sailingunc]

Pretty much what I had suspected and our wxguessers here at the Academy are forecasting, but Phil's details make it much easier to understand...thanks for that. But...Dang it! I panicked too early and pulled my boat "Bout Time" last Sunday...egged on by a few neighbors who were also pulling theirs! Oh well, it was a a great season for our "new to us" 210 Proline WA Cuddy...and I learned a lot and relearned even more thanks to you guys. Plan to hit it hard in the spring and hope to last well into the fall again. Got my full cover today from Boater's World and plan to clean her out and prep for the long winter's night...with hopes of waking her up early for the spring commissioning ceremony and following you guys around again for the spring rack season! Merry Christmas to all, and to all, a good night!

sailingunc
210 Proline WA Cuddy "bout Time"
Severn River

[StepChild]

Thanks for the report Phil!! Sounds like some good fishing wx to me!!

[LILY]

Lets just hope April is colder than normal so the fish will stay longer?

Phil (lily)

[salty sam]

Thanks for report in plain language! Doesn't break my heart to have a relatively snow free winter.

John