Official 11-12 winter outlook

[ste6168]

Plowing 6" of snow ! That would be alot better . Hope your right about snow Sat. night but sure doesnt look good.

Take it your a landscaper/contractor of some type? I feel for you guys if so, this year has to be putting a hurting on a lot of people who have money and supplies in plowing equipment!

[LILY]

First of all I never said I was an expert.

I'm working on a new post now at the office, since the other night our internet crashed as I was in the middle of typing my update. 25 minutes of typing for nothing!!

I will make comments on the storm this weekend? But I'm looking at the bigger picture moving forward.

I see a major "BIBLICAL STORM on the way very soon. I told you FEB was going to be a 'WILD RIDE".

Phil (lily)

[rj]

Do I go fishin' this weekend?? or stay home & put plow on truck & tune up snowblower?????

[meatgetter]

Hey rj i hope u need to put the snow plow on ...............................Bring it..

[suskyman]

2/15>2/16 Phil??? Your thoughts?

[Hookin-Up]

The models cant agree on something 48 hours out the 15-16th is way to far out. There is an big storm the 11th but its showing not phasing and going out to sea right now. 18z showed nothing the 15th-16th

[LILY]

The storm tomorrow night is nothing and that's why have not posted on it! Been way too warm and will weaken moving east and most precipitation stays south of Baltimore!

Now my daughter has Lacrosse Camp tomorrow early than I all post the update during that time! I'm thinking of adding a new post titled " FEB to remember ! I see a chance at 4-5 storms between 2/11 and early March! The new info I'm gathering could lead to snow and cold into April

Good nite another long day at the office and that's delayed the update again but promise to have it up tomorrow !!!!

If anyone has an FHA LOAN right now rates are in the 3's fixed and they have a free program ! I'm buried at work right now!!


Phil(lily)

[LILY]

The models are a mess right now and will continue to struggle until week 2! Than the MJO is finally showing signs of swinging into phase 8-1-2-3? Now if it can with a +PNA and the AO TANKING and the NAO showing signs of going negative but finally blocking, than the flip will lock and hold
?
That's all the cat I'm letting out of the bag! Stop looking and forecasting on the model runs the 18 z and the 00 z GFS, THE EURO, NO GAPS, JMA!

Look at something else Instead of letting the computer guess for you? Like I have stated before anyone can copy and paste or repeat modeling forecasting but the true work is to find out why the computer is seeing the pattern coming!!! That's the work and you will rewarded by better predictions and forecasting!!



Phil(lily)

[Hillbilly Boater]

OK Phil, why the heck is it snowing like crazy here in PA? Not calling for any totals, but things are white and a lot of moisture behind it to the south.

[LILY]

+ Reply to Thread Results 1 to 1 of 1 Thread: Feb-mar 2012 winter weather update! Thread ToolsShow Printable Version

Email this Page…

Subscribe to this Thread…

Search Thread Advanced Search Rate This ThreadCurrent Rating

‎ Excellent
‎ Good
‎ Average
‎ Bad
‎ Terrible

DisplayLinear Mode

Switch to Hybrid Mode

Switch to Threaded Mode

02-04-2012, 05:32 PM #1 LILY
View Profile
View Forum Posts
Private Message
View Blog Entries
View Articles
Send Email
Super TF Poster - Not a Tidal Fish Subscriber
Join Date Mar 2003
Posts 2,265
Blog Entries1 Feb-mar 2012 winter weather update!
Good Afternoon TF Family. I'm sorry for the delay in this updated report. I had it completed the other night but before I could post it our internet @ the office went down!!

I just got home from the University of Maryland. My daughter was involved in their yearly Lacrosse Camp Day @ the field right next to the Comcast Center. It was great experience and their are a lot of talented young girls in the state of Maryalnd that can play Lacrosse The UMD Terps Womans Lacrosse team who where National Champs worked with the girls in drills, shooting, passing, schemes, etc... I was very impressed with the program and thought I would share with others, just in case they have a daughter who plays lacrosse?

NOW on too the juicy stuff but first how does everyone like this winter weather so far? I hope everyone was able to get out and enjoy this past FALL( THE LAST 90 DAYS) as this would be the best way to describe the weather pattern since late october. Its been like "GROUND HOG DAY" over and over and over with consistent above-normal temps. However, we have been some what fortunate if you like this type of weather during the winter. There have been days with light winds and days with very little rain. I know 'WALLEYE PETE" and a few other TF family members have had some "personal best" fishing days during this non-existent winter weather pattern!

I know a alot of you are enjoying this unusual winter weather pattern? but there is a handful of people including our local ski slopes that are struggling to keep what little trails they have open covered with snow.

As we move into the month of FEB. the daily average temps starts to climb, sun angle is higher, and the days start to grow longer. We have more hours of sun to warm the roads, buildings, ground, etc. When this starts too happen you have less radiational cooling and our over night temps struggle to drop below normal.

However, with not going into alot of detail and to confuse my readers, I willl make this post a K.I.S.S.( keep it simple stupid)

I metioned in many of my updates before that there are things called STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS. Now we have had 1 of these that happened about 3-4 weeks ago or so? When this happens, we can rest assure that the lower 48 will have an arctic outbreak around 2-3 weeks after the STRAT WARMING EVENT has occured. Now we did have the arctic cold come into our backyard for a few days but it quickly modified because of many other global factors that take place on a daily basis that control our weather. The norhtern branch of the jet stream has been locked up across the Canada and the North Pole prettty mcuh since October, excepet abuckle or a ridge their! This is why Alaska has had record snows and brutal cold temps as low as -68F to -80F and this is without the wind. WOW With the ridge across Alaska it has blocked and locked the cold air in right over top of them. Now finally the pattern is showing signs of changing. During a La Nina winter you can get these types of patterns to lock in and hold. Look at last year. It was also a La Nina winter but the signal was much weaker and was more towards nuetral. This winter the La Nina has been stronger hence the wierd weather, especially back to back La Nina winters. Now the La Nina is weaking and the MJO -( Madden and Julian Oscillation ) is finally moving into a more winter like phase 8-1-2-3 and the PNA ( Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern ) is positive, the NAO ( North Atlantic Oscillation ) is going negative and the AO-( Arctic Oscillation ) going negative, we will finally get the block over Greenland and get a cross polar flow to stick, we will get some real winter weather over the next 60 days.

I will complete this and give you my forecast in a few minutes. I have to run my daughter to work.

Thanks


Phil(lily)


I will update in a few. Just a few wet snow flakes