Gotta love a bad report. It's suppose to pick up but this morning should have been great. I am hoping for the same tomorrow. Same forecast 10-15 with gusts to 20. But I gotta see it for myself, before canceling.
Not sure what's worse, have them get it wrong that way and cancel a trip needlessly or have a favorable forecast and get caught out there when all heck breaks loose about two hours in and risk life and limb getting back to the dock. Have had plenty of both situations over the years.
Knowing wind "direction " along with current is a necessity to estimate wave height. Wave height is the real concern for most fishermen (as opposed to wind speed). All predictive WEB sites get their basic data from NOAA. The differences between predictions lies solely with interpretation. NOAA is fantastic at predicting temperature and precipitation. Predicting wind (especially in a small local area) is a science that is less reliable. And, NOAA has to be somewhat conservative with their regional wind forecasts if there is much doubt.
Probably most of us have observed very calm conditions when a small craft advisory was in effect. Not common, but it occasionally happens. I look at multiple forecasts including NOAA regional forecasts, CBOFS, fishweather etc. and try my best to apply it to my intended fishing area taking into account current & wind direction. Most of the time that works well. I still constantly remind myself to be vigilant for unexpected changes.
Typically we study the weather ourselves a few days in advance and get a general idea. I say we, and really my father gets the credit. He’s been more accurate than any of them. Due to Easter we weren’t able to do it. I wanted to take my young son out and I wasn’t taking any chances…. One thing is for sure, you can’t blame the lack of stripers on me….