David - we see two seperate fall fisheries in the bay.The first started a few weeks ago with alot of 20-30 inch Rock gathering near river mouths and channel edges - gorging on small baitfish leaving the shallow creeks as the water temps. drop. Most guys cast/jig or troll small lures for these fish.
The second part is just about to start.Sea run Rock,fresh from the ocean hopefully will migrate up into our part of the bay.Some years the big fish come as far north as Love Point- other years they stay near Solomons/PLO area.These fish can travel 10 miles in a day and feed heavily,preparing for winter.
Right now-I'd use small umbrellas.Give it 2 more weeks ,then switch most of the gear to bigger lures.Never hurts to have a few small lures out.Seven years ago I caught a 40lber (46'') on a 1oz bucktail with 5'' porkrind strip.
I base this decision on reports to see when the migratory fish (up to 50") arrive. I fish out of Solomons, and in my opinion, the time to switch to the larger lures is now. I've been hearing consistent reports of large fish (36"+) with sea lice, so my setup will be 90% large (9") shads complemented with a few storm shads and a spoon. My experience has been that the Fall fish (in Solomons and south) are just as big as the spring fish.
Both what Skip and Martin said is fact. In the fall the big question is just how far up the Bay the big fish migrate although we do get fish coming south from Delaware Bay that come thru. There is usually a pretty short window for them as those fish are on the move south. There's a substantial amount of bait around so maybe we'll see a good run from Chesapeake Beach north. No question tho that from Solomons south produces better. no matter what spread you use I would suggest including a few smaller baits. I have caught many big fish on 1 & 2 oz baits. In fact one of the biggest fish I've ever caught was on a 2 oz bucktail with pork rind that looked like it had been through a war it was so beat up. Pork rind was used exclusively prior to the arrival of plastics and caught many fish. I love the plastic stuff and probably as a general rule works better than pork rind. Maybe it's just the way I was taught but in the fall I always put out one rod with smaller baits and pork rind.