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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Jamie - my wife, the Admiral, is a true snow lover (I'm not far behind but I do have to shovel more than her) and as such followed your excellent posts concerning the blizzard. Thanks again for your efforts.

She asked me to see if you're willing to wager a general forecast for the rest of the winter. (I'm pretty sure she's afraid that maybe we used up our snow allotment all at once.) So if you have any thoughts on the subject and some time to spare we, and probably a lot of others TF'ers, would love to hear them.

Bob
Grady 20
 

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Bob

I am not by any means a Meteorologist I just know how to read the models by following a board which has many Met's and listening to them break down what will be happening. Now I am pretty good at reading them and following trends.

So that being said There are 2 models that go out 10 days and 1 that goes out 16. I think the Atmosphere changes too much to really trust much beyond 10 and even that changes around which each model run (every 6-12 hours) So those who think they can predict what will happen any further out than 10 days can follow atmospheric trends but a lot of speculation is involved as well.

So looking at the models right now after today it will cool back down to more seasonal temps at least through the 15-16th In that time frame there are some storms moving through but nothing looks anywhere near as strong as the blizzard we just had. Also the models don't really have a consensus on the cold or timing yet so don't know if its rain or snow.

First the eastern shore may get a surprise 1-2" tonight if the cold air reaches there before the rain clears. Maybe even a few flakes SE if i95 on the west shore but most models have not staying mostly on the eastern shore. Next Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon is interesting... there is not model consensus by any means yet but more are liking the idea of a storm. Problem is the temps are not super cold so it may start as rain then we play the waiting game to see when it will turn over to snow. The snow will not be widespread if it happens. Below is the latest CMC snow map from today:



But the GFS still has it much lighter and mostly rain



The Euro model is much closer to the Canadian but remember the GFS was more correct on the last storm. We will tomorrow after a few models runs but yes IF its cold enough we may see a 3-6" snowfall next Mon-Tues.

Maybe another small sort on Friday with a dusting to a few inches. Then it warms up before another bid mid western blizzard and then we cool off again.

Very stormy pattern just need the cold in place to make the snow.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Jamie - thx for taking the time to reply.

We're both happy that there's at least a chance that we haven't used up our allotment already. However, we wouldn't really mind if you could keep further snowfalls to a foot or less. This last beast overwhelmed our mid-size snow thrower and made for some aching backs. But it sure was BEAUTIFUL!

Bob
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Well the eastern shore got a little more than expected out of this storm sliding up the coast. You can see how a 50 mile shift can make a huge difference. Even AA co kids are delayed for school for a few flakes (Which is ridiculous)

Anyway the storm next Mon night-Tues is looking better now. The models overnight have come to more of an agreement. This is a small storm there will be a very small bullseye of 4-6" which you will see below. Most will get the 2-4". Behind this is another storm which will mostly stay to our north but you may see some snow flurries as another cold front goes through Fri night with very windy cold Sat-Sun.

GFS snow map for Mon-Tues



CMC snow map

 

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Afternoon models have the storm early next week now missing a lot of us... This one will be more difficult to track and may not have a good idea until 48hrs or so out
 
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