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Good evening everyone. Sorry for the delay dealing with a few issues lately. This forecast takes a lot of time to put together.

First off there are many factors that play a role in forecasting this extended winter weather forecast. One example is way back in May of 2021 we had very below normal temps which I'm sure a lot of you remember Memorial Day Weekend was very chilly and temps are normally in the 80's and catching crabs at the end of May is normal, not this year. So what I do is look at pattern recognition and analogs going back to at least the1950's. This past May was the 15th colder than normal May over the last 60 years. Now I look back and every May during this period that was below normal led to a colder than normal December. Other factors include a stratospheric warming event over the north pole that happened in mid October, which leads to cold air intrusion into the pattern typically within 45-60 days from the event which would put us into December. There are also other things pointing to a very cold start to winter. These include a negative EPO (eastern pacific oscillation), a negative WPO ( western pacific oscillation), and a negative AO and NAO ( Arctic Oscillation -North Atlantic Oscillation. These signals play an important role in determining our winter weather. Another key factor or the one in the driver seat is a weak or neutral LA NINA. This year all the past analogs like the winter of 1950-1954-1967-1976-1978-1985-1989 are just some examples I like to point out. In these years they all had below normal May temps which led to a very cold December over the eastern United States. Last winter was a West QBO ( quasi-biennial oscillation) this is equatorial zonal winds between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere. With a West QBO it put the ridge in central and western US example the extreme cold weather in Feb. last year in Texas which locked in and cant migrate east. This winter we have a East QBO which will center the coldest air into the central and eastern US. One more point I would like to make that all of you are now sleeping LOL. No kidding aside is another main driver of this pattern that I see coming for the period of Thanksgiving thru New Years is the MJO ( Madden-Julian Oscillation) this signal is very important in determining the weather around the world. It has phases 1-8 the current outlook is it will go into phase 5 which is a cold signal for the eastern US for December also phases 1 and 8 are good for sustained cold going into JAN-FEB.

Based on my research and information gathering my WINTER FORECAST is as follows.

We are going to start winter off very below normal. My coldest period for the front half of winter 2021-2022 is Thanksgiving to New Years. I'm also expecting a storm just before Thanksgiving, however more than likely for our area I'm expecting mostly rain but we should see some snow but minor accumulation. There will be a white Thanksgiving in the Northeast, with some areas getting substantial snow. Once this storm passes the arctic air will slowly take hold and we will see below normal temps for most of December. There will be a 1 big storm during late December and a " WHITE CHRISTMAS is in the cards for our area this year. I'm also expecting some HARD ICE for you avid ice fishing guys like me. Its been 4 years since we had ice thick enough to fish safely.

Now for January 2022 I'm still uncertain if the cold period will continue some long range models have the pattern flipping but also some that see another stratospheric warming event over the north pole in mid December which typically leads to another arctic intrusion 45-60 days following? However I do see the pattern relaxing in mid Jan. lasting into mid Feb. with another cold pattern taking hold late Feb. well into March with a Major Nor Easter burying us with 2 feet of snow.

Overall snowfall for northern and central Maryland will be above normal with at least 2 Major winter storms.

I will update this forecast with other post especially if I'm forecasting a snow event and will give out totals for you area.

Its been a while since we have had a true harsh winter and I'm almost certain that this December will be one to remember!!!!

Look for updates over the coming weeks. Please be safe and healthy my friends

Phil (lily)
 

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Thank you for posting this.
 

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I'm looking forward to your forecast coming to fruition - I think :unsure:. Thanks for posting. Although all but words like cold or snow are above my pay grade, I really enjoy the analytics. Cheers and hope that what ailed is you no longer.
 

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Hope you are doing great. Thanks for the forecast. I always look forward to your forecasts. They usually are pretty accurate in my opinion.
 

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Great Job Phil. Lots of detail.

Here are a few more sources to really confuse the hell out of people.




 
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