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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
ABC news here in Harrisburg just announced that the Susquehanna River stage is currently at 4.4 ft. and frozen over. It is anticipated that we will get 1" to 2" of rain over the next 24 hours. It is predicted that this could put the river up to 8 to 10 ft by Sunday afternoon. This may be good news for the flats season. Unless we get another real cold spell, this will clear the ice off reducing later flooding and the runoff from the rain could raise the water temps on the flats.:thumbup:
In the meantime it could also mean muddy conditions for a short while.
Look on the bright side.;)

Tight lines,
 

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I've been pondering this situation all day and I think in the end it's gonna be a positive thing for the flats. Hopefully by the end of March we will be fishing. All it takes is a few weeks around 50 and some nights above freezing.
 

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I say lets get the rain over right at the start of the season
 

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Calling for up to maybe 2" here in upper mayberry. At least my boat will get washed off :D Rains on weekdays are better than rains on weekends or whenever I fish :rockon:
 

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There is'nt any ice on the flats. And I'm not sure how every county along the river blacktopping everything is going to help the flats.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
There is'nt any ice on the flats. And I'm not sure how every county along the river blacktopping everything is going to help the flats.
Is your glass half full or half empty???????:confused:
 

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Good News!!

Saturday - 3/3/07COMBINED SEMINAR$25.00 in Advance
8:00am to 1:00pmPresented by Capt. Tom Hughes & Capt. Chuck Fisher$35.00 At the Door
Dundalk Moose Hall #1228LIGHT TACKLE ,FLY FISHING, TROLLING, LIVE LINING, BOTTOM BOUNCINGCall 410-288-5310 for Tickets

John: Let it rain. Having it come down the river now is a good thing. Thanks for the information.

__________________
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Capt. Tom Hughes
Full Time Light Tackle & Fly Fishing Guide
Booking Trips on the Susquehanna Flats
 

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Not that it would make much difference but at least the Susky near Harrisburg is currently flowing almost 2X below normal for this time of year. And my oustide thermometer here in Emmitsburg is reading 33F, so this rain won't take a whole lot of snow with it like a warm rain would. Hope no one gets flooded out.
 

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The rain will bring a big load of freshly spread cow manure to the bay thats not good. Farmers seem to spread this stuff just before a rain.
 

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Hey John

How much snow is on the ground in your area and north? The melting will be the deciding factor.
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
Not that it would make much difference but at least the Susky near Harrisburg is currently flowing almost 2X below normal for this time of year. And my oustide thermometer here in Emmitsburg is reading 33F, so this rain won't take a whole lot of snow with it like a warm rain would. Hope no one gets flooded out.
The river has been flowing at normal levels for this time of year at about 4'. If it were flowing at 2X below normal, it would be below summer drought levels. 8' is about 2 times normal and it takes significant runoff to do that. Once the spring rains start, it will fluctuate between 5 and 6'. Temperatures here were 40 deg when I got up this morning and my digital rain gauge registered 1.4" of rain over night which did take a lot ( 60%) of the snow with it. They are predicting that the river will crest on Sunday afternoon at 9' at Harrisburg. Flood stage is 17'.

Tolmaz: You are welcome.

chugbugger said: The rain will bring a big load of freshly spread cow manure to the bay thats not good. Farmers seem to spread this stuff just before a rain.

That could be a potential problem later. The farmers have not been able to get out and spread manure due to the cold and icy conditions. Should not be a problem at this time.

Reds: Good to hear from you. In my immediate area, we originally had 8" of snow of which 2" was solid ice. As of yesterday the warm temperatures had reduced that to about 5". This AM it is now only 2 to 3". The rain that we had overnight was a nice steady drizzle which creates less runoff and melts the snow. They are not even calling for flooding in the local streams that empty into the Susquehanna. You are right on about what occurs north of Harrisburg determines what happens. It doesn't look like this is going to cause much of a problem. The river forecast would reflect this. :clap:

Tight lines,
 

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Actually the Susquehanna River at Harrisburg has been flowing at around 60% the normal (Median) flows for the last couple of days. That is based on flow data for those days for past 116 years. It is starting to move up now.

Don't get your comparisons from gage height. Use the discharge graph to get the best information.

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/md/nwis/uv/?site_no=01570500&PARAmeter_cd=00065,00060,00062,00054

Paste this address in your browser to get the latest information for Harrisburg.
 

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Bill H beat me to it. I gotta admit, reading river flows can be deceiving depending on whether "cubic-feet-second" or "verticle feet" is used to gage flow. I was using cubic feet-per-second (cfs) to gage flow at the Marietta station which is half way between Harrisburg and Conowingo. On March 1 @ 1:00am the flow at Marietta was ~23,000 cfs while at the same time at the same station the 75 year median flow is 42,000 cfs. Not quit 2X, but almost. For some reason the graph doesn't show the median flow in feet, wish it did.

But go to the site now and look at it. The flow graph is shooting almost straight up! We'll see where it stops. I'm glad I'm not living streamside on the Susky.

This morning my north facing yard in the mountains near Emmitsburg is pretty much still covered with 2" of snow (more like solid ice) thats absolutely rock hard. Yesterday I had to use a pick ax to chop channels through the snow/ice so the predicted rain and runoff can flow away from my house and driveway. It was as hard and dense as pond ice... nasty job... but its either that or a wet basement.

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/md/nwis/current?type=flow
 

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HJS,
The real key to getting a feel for the discharge of any stream is to use cubic feet per second. That gage height (in vertical feet) is just an index that shows what the water level is relative to some arbitrary point. At a given location on a stream, as the gage height (water level) increases, the amount of water flowing generally increases at an increasing rate because the water is generally flowing faster and the channel generally gets wider.

Bill
 

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The weblink for the susky at harrisburg forecasted guage height is at:

http://newweb.erh.noaa.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=ctp&gage=harp1&view=1,1,1,1,1,1

You can search this site for lots of rivers, it works best after the rain finishes falling rather than when it is forecasting levels based on predicted rain.

http://newweb.erh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ctp&view=1,1,1,1,1,1

I am an avid whitewater kayak paddler and I spend a lot of time looking at water levels as I decide what to paddle and when. Once you are familiar with a given river or stream you get a good idea of what different guage readings mean. In some cases an few inches can make a huge difference in the character of the river or stream, especially in a steep-walled gorge like the Potomac below Great Falls.

Yes discharge (cfs) is the best way to compare, most guages show it on a log scale so the curve of the discharge graph looks a lot like the guage height graph.
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 · (Edited)
UPDATE.....

The rain has stopped. It is a beautiful sunny day. The temperature here is 58 deg. and the wind is blowing at 5 mph. The snow is rapidly disappearing and this wind will help evaporate the moisture. Swatara Creek and the Yellow Breeches Creeks are just about at flood stage and are expected to drop off. Looks like a good day for Crappies or yellow perch.:fishing2:

Tight lines,
 
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