It's based on old old data. Always is. Ever read the saltwater sport mans forecast for the months. NC is still on them, every year. NC ocean area hasn't seen a run of stripers in years except residents. Things change and media doesn't catch up. Most fish are in the Chesapeake bay now. I'd expect some even spawned in the rivers during the last warm up a week ago. When have we ever seen 55 degree water temps before St party's day!? Of course most players weren't there yet. It's not all water temps, duration of daylight too but one has to over ride the other at some point or the whole system would get screwed up.