Tidal Fish Forum banner
1 - 10 of 10 Posts

Registered
Joined
143 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Just a quick note on upcoming storm. It looks like the set-up is for a (cutter) a more inland track. This is why I have not jumped all over this storm too early and did not post anything official yet because this storm will be down to the last 12 hours on who gets snow and who gets rain. I will write on this post Saturday which is around 24-36 hours before storm arrives. I will explain why the models are coming into agreement that this will move inland, its complicated. Where we are located say Central Maryland many factors have to work in our favor to get the B word. I promise I will try to keep it simple so everyone can understand. This storm only needs to track east 100 miles then what the models are showing and the I-95 corridor gets buried.

THE GFS ( AMERICAN MODEL )----- This model is not our friend right now it tracks the storm right up the Chesapeake Bay meaning Hagerstown West will see snow and east of there snow for a few hours than heavy Rain

THE EURO MODEL---- This model is tracking a little farther east but still too far inland

Stay Tuned 馃榿

Phil (Lily)
 

Registered
Joined
143 Posts
Discussion Starter · #3 ·
On a side note its going to be cold the rest of the month and possible 3-4 snowstorms (even if we miss this one)- next 2 weeks the pattern is ripe it has not been set up like this in years
 

Registered
Joined
1,958 Posts
Thanks Phil.

a hundred mile shift, as the crow flys is a long way. That鈥檚 the difference of the low crossing Baltimore city and the low 50 miles off shore of ocean city. Unlikely.
 

Registered
Joined
11,440 Posts
The weather channel is calling for a mix of snow/ice/rain 3-6in. on 95 northern Md. as of last night using the Euro model..We'll see.
 

Registered
Joined
143 Posts
Discussion Starter · #8 ·
Very Dangerous winds and coastal flooding western side of bay if boats in water please pull it tomorrow will post on storm tomorrow as stated I will have a better idea on what鈥檚 going to happen
 

Registered
Joined
1,602 Posts
Very Dangerous winds and coastal flooding western side of bay if boats in water please pull it tomorrow will post on storm tomorrow as stated I will have a better idea on what鈥檚 going to happen
Thanks! Have lift up high but will watch for sure. It's been probably 20 years since I wintered over in the water and I can still remember trying to calculate in the middle of the night how many inches of snow would put the scuppers too deep and do me in....
 

Registered
Joined
143 Posts
Discussion Starter · #10 ·
Good Morning

A potent Nor easter coming up from the south-south west. However, like I stated before it's an inland cutter. When this storm reaches the mouth of Chesapeake Bay it will start to tap into Atlantic moisture. The water temps off the Mid-Atlantic coast are above normal and this will fuel the storm moving north. We are likely to see winds in the upper atmosphere cranking to Hurricane force. These winds will raise temperature's quickly and there may even be thunderstorms along the coastal plain on Monday. This is going to be a rain maker 馃が very sad. What little snow that falls east and south of Baltimore will likely only produce an inch before switching to sleet and freezing rain then over to Heavy Rain. There will be snowfall setting up if live from west to Hagerstown to Wisp. Even areas around Carroll and Frederick County could see 3 inches before it changes to rain. There will be some coastal flooding along the western shore of the bay please advise.

Now why is storm moving Inland.


First off let's look at the tele connections. The one thing is we are having a slightly positive NAO this signal sets up blocking to our north. (We want a strong negative phase) So, without the strong blocking and the cold HIGH pressure be just north and west of us. The cold High pressure will deliver the cold air down the Appalachian's chain, and it's called cold air damming. However, the farther east the cold air will be a shallow layer (due to the position to the HIGH PRESSURE. Which means it will be below freezing at the surface but above normal as we move up to layers of the atmosphere. The BIG PLAYER here is the strong SSE winds as the storm approaches, we want NNE winds force the storm more offshore (snow maker) to lock in cold air and this position of the HIGH would so the atmosphere will warm quickly maybe as high as 70F in upper atmosphere which will deliver the heavy rain.

There will be at least 3 more storms before months end, possibly a large one? I will update later but please post your conditions especially storm surge and heavy rain, and if you live west of Hagerstown your snowfall

Please be safe.

Phil (lily)馃槈
 
1 - 10 of 10 Posts
Top