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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
So we go from a very windy 5 days to now a very WET 5-6 days! Winds won't be nice later this week or this weekend either. Some models showing 5-8" of rain in the area. Looks like those flooding rains may be mostly to our NE but could cause stained water with the run off for weeks in the north bay.

**TROPICAL DOWNPOURS...DROUGHT BUSTING RAINS**
A slow moving and developing tropical system off the coast will mature into a tropical storm will slingshot moisture off the Atlantic ocean.
At the same time a slow moving and potent cold front will march east drawing up MORE moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
This is a scenario for a very healthy amount of rain.. 2-5"+ on average for a period between Wed-Sat.
SHORE IMPACTS/ TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN:
Gusty winds...moderate coastal flooding..Heavy surf will commence starting Thursday as Tropical Storm Joaquin develops. Thoughts on Joaquin's intensity remain split. Given the WELL ABOVE normal water and Gulf stream influence there could be much surprise with this system. Modeling is SPLIT on this however, the likely solution (per the movement and placement of the cold front moving east) will deflect it offshore. We could see a landfall potential along eastern Long Island. However, it's too early to call specifics on a Saturday landfall



 

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I was thinking of participating in a bike ride from Salisbury to Assateague on Saturday. I gather from this that the weather on Saturday is even more likely to be rainy and windy there than it is in the Annapolis area.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Yeah the Seagull century will not be fun unless they reverse course and go from the shore to Salisbury because the winds will be like last weekend or stronger with 20-30kts form the east.

He is backing out of doing it and the event organizers would be smart to reschedule.

I was thinking of participating in a bike ride from Salisbury to Assateague on Saturday. I gather from this that the weather on Saturday is even more likely to be rainy and windy there than it is in the Annapolis area.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
Update with Afternoon Euro... keeps looking worse. Wish I could get my deposit back for camping this weekend!

Monday afternoon European models come out with a extremely strong coastal storm for this weekend affecting the entire east coast from South Carolina to New England. It combines tropical depression number 11 which is approaching the Bahamas ....with a massive trough in the jet strwsm that plunges down the East Coast from Eastern Canada. The two systems combined and form some sort of powerful subtropical monster nor'easter which ends up slamming into Virginia on Saturday October 3rd.
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
And now it's a tropical depression probably a tropical storm by the time it comes up the coast

ForumRunner_20150928_185037.png
 

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Update with Afternoon Euro... keeps looking worse. Wish I could get my deposit back for camping this weekend!

Monday afternoon European models come out with a extremely strong coastal storm for this weekend affecting the entire east coast from South Carolina to New England. It combines tropical depression number 11 which is approaching the Bahamas ....with a massive trough in the jet strwsm that plunges down the East Coast from Eastern Canada. The two systems combined and form some sort of powerful subtropical monster nor'easter which ends up slamming into Virginia on Saturday October 3rd.
Don't feel bad- we were at Point Lookout all weekend dealing with the wind and the high tides in the campground, we had planned on fishing the islands but that was right out. Amused ourselves with lizardfish, small blues and short flounder. Water got over the campground dock Saturday night, and there were 2' waves in Lake Conoy.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
Talk about Sandy.... Here is the newest HWRF Models showing a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane hitting VA Beach area. This would NOT be a good scenario!



Note that this is not likely at this point just a possibility. Here is the model track map which you can see is a mess:



The Canadian model had this hitting Maine yesterday not it also shows a Cat 2+ hurricane hitting around Cape May. This would be a better scenario because the winds would be from the E and N meaning no surge up the bay to cause flooding like Sandy.



The GFS and Euro has the low over the SE swallowing the energy from Jauquin and turing into just a nastily Nor Easter.

Will keep tracking but the trend is definitely not looking good for weekend plans.
 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
Bad news brand new GFS also just jumped on the Hurricane at the mouth of the bay Sun AM scenario...



Here is the wind forecast for the GFS for Sunday morning. This may be overdone...but who knows. This is just a model and not a forecast. It may miss us all together but IM just putting this out as potential! This is showing 65+kt winds from the east for middle bay.


Up close of winds and direction. Bad news is if this track happens the winds will shift out of the south after the center passes which can bring a water surge up the bay.



Will post updates tomorrow morning
 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
Latest from NHC
At this time it is very hard to gauge the long-range potential
impacts of Joaquin in the United States. The environmental steering
currents are complex and are not being handled in a consistent
manner by the forecast models. A wide range of outcomes are
possible and it is simply too soon to say what impacts, if any,
Joaquin will have on the United States.

But many agree now it is stronger than expected and may even be a cat 3 or 4 hurricane. Hopefully missing or weakening before landfall
 

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Jamie, I sure hope that model is wrong. Thanks for coming back and posting this info. It's been a quiet hurricane season till now, which was a good thing. Looking forward to tomorrows updated tracks.
 

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Discussion Starter · #19 ·
Guys not good this AM. All models have now shifted towards the tracks that curves it back to the coast. The WRF, GFS, and canadian ALL have it hitting between Hatteras and Chincoteague. May be a good time to think of pulling your boat...

H WRF Model


GFDL


GFS right over Va Beach- yes thats 50-60kt east winds across the bay


Canadian - this one the weakest but still Cat 1 hitting lower eastern shore
 

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Wow! Thanks for the posts Jamie! if this thing goes a touch inland with the eye to the west of the bay, then folks might be kayaking in downtown Annapolis like they did during Isabel. If the eye tracks east of the bay, then there might be reports of boats in the mud in their slips due to water being blown out of the bay. This certainly bears watching....
 
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