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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Good Morning

A potent Nor easter coming up from the south-south west. However, like I stated before it's an inland cutter. When this storm reaches the mouth of Chesapeake Bay it will start to tap into Atlantic moisture. The water temps off the Mid-Atlantic coast are above normal and this will fuel the storm moving north. We are likely to see winds in the upper atmosphere cranking to Hurricane force. These winds will raise temperature's quickly and there may even be thunderstorms along the coastal plain on Monday. This is going to be a rain maker 馃が very sad. What little snow that falls east and south of Baltimore will likely only produce an inch before switching to sleet and freezing rain then over to Heavy Rain. There will be snowfall setting up if live from west to Hagerstown to Wisp. Even areas around Carroll and Frederick County could see 3 inches before it changes to rain. There will be some coastal flooding along the western shore of the bay please advise.

Now why is storm moving Inland.


First off let's look at the tele connections. The one thing is we are having a slightly positive NAO this signal sets up blocking to our north. (We want a strong negative phase) So, without the strong blocking and the cold HIGH pressure be just north and west of us. The cold High pressure will deliver the cold air down the Appalachian's chain, and it's called cold air damming. However, the farther east the cold air will be a shallow layer (due to the position to the HIGH PRESSURE. Which means it will be below freezing at the surface but above normal as we move up to layers of the atmosphere. The BIG PLAYER here is the strong SSE winds as the storm approaches, we want NNE winds force the storm more offshore (snow maker) to lock in cold air and this position of the HIGH would so the atmosphere will warm quickly maybe as high as 70F in upper atmosphere which will deliver the heavy rain.

There will be at least 3 more storms before months end, possibly a large one? I will update later but please post your conditions especially storm surge and heavy rain, and if you live west of Hagerstown your snowfall

Estimated Winds
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I'm also waiting on new model runs its going to be really hard to get rid of this heavy cold air its only 18F here in Conowingo the Low will follow the warm front so it may move a little more East than the models are saying?


Please be safe.

Phil (lily)馃槈
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
Wow check out this estimated temperature model valid Jan 30th lows near zero馃ザ馃ザ馃ザ馃槉 I told you it was coming break out the ice drills and tip ups even looks like new model runs show extremely cold temperatures thru mid February with a relaxation period of 10-12 days and then beginning of March 馃ザ馃ザ馃ザ鉂勨潉鉂 well below normal

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Wow check out this estimated temperature model valid Jan 30th lows near zero馃ザ馃ザ馃ザ馃槉 I told you it was coming break out the ice drills and tip ups even looks like new model runs show extremely cold temperatures thru mid February with a relaxation period of 10-12 days and then beginning of March 馃ザ馃ザ馃ザ鉂勨潉鉂 well below normal Most of us in Md. ,along the shores of the Chesapeake . are in Agricultural zone 7a that means normal low ,winter temps should be expected to be between 0-5 f. Last, year, I had a low of +24 in my yard .The warmest ,winter low ever for me and since 1999 I have had a one time low of +4f. This year.so far, last night +19 f. We're still way ahead of the game. When it goes below 0f that's unusual for z7a. The coldest temps are usually in Western Maryland , in Oakland z5b.The coldest temp ever recorded was in Oakland Jan. 1912 -40f. The lowest reading is usually right around dawn. I use an indoor/outdoor thermometer ,so I always know what the outside temp.is. I got a low of 12f this morning 1/16/22.Oakland was about the same this morning. OC checked in at 30f. Crisfield 20f.

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Snowing in federalsburg Md. on the Eastern Shore. Starting to lay on ground.-------------6:24 PM Snow stopped around 4:00 PM. Just a dusting. It is raining now at 6:26 PM. Probably going to be a lot of ice on the roads tomorrow.
 
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