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Good Morning
A potent Nor easter coming up from the south-south west. However, like I stated before it's an inland cutter. When this storm reaches the mouth of Chesapeake Bay it will start to tap into Atlantic moisture. The water temps off the Mid-Atlantic coast are above normal and this will fuel the storm moving north. We are likely to see winds in the upper atmosphere cranking to Hurricane force. These winds will raise temperature's quickly and there may even be thunderstorms along the coastal plain on Monday. This is going to be a rain maker 🤬 very sad. What little snow that falls east and south of Baltimore will likely only produce an inch before switching to sleet and freezing rain then over to Heavy Rain. There will be snowfall setting up if live from west to Hagerstown to Wisp. Even areas around Carroll and Frederick County could see 3 inches before it changes to rain. There will be some coastal flooding along the western shore of the bay please advise.
Now why is storm moving Inland.
First off let's look at the tele connections. The one thing is we are having a slightly positive NAO this signal sets up blocking to our north. (We want a strong negative phase) So, without the strong blocking and the cold HIGH pressure be just north and west of us. The cold High pressure will deliver the cold air down the Appalachian's chain, and it's called cold air damming. However, the farther east the cold air will be a shallow layer (due to the position to the HIGH PRESSURE. Which means it will be below freezing at the surface but above normal as we move up to layers of the atmosphere. The BIG PLAYER here is the strong SSE winds as the storm approaches, we want NNE winds force the storm more offshore (snow maker) to lock in cold air and this position of the HIGH would so the atmosphere will warm quickly maybe as high as 70F in upper atmosphere which will deliver the heavy rain.
There will be at least 3 more storms before months end, possibly a large one? I will update later but please post your conditions especially storm surge and heavy rain, and if you live west of Hagerstown your snowfall
Estimated Winds
![Map Orange Organism Rectangle Font]()
I'm also waiting on new model runs its going to be really hard to get rid of this heavy cold air its only 18F here in Conowingo the Low will follow the warm front so it may move a little more East than the models are saying?
Please be safe.
Phil (lily)😉
A potent Nor easter coming up from the south-south west. However, like I stated before it's an inland cutter. When this storm reaches the mouth of Chesapeake Bay it will start to tap into Atlantic moisture. The water temps off the Mid-Atlantic coast are above normal and this will fuel the storm moving north. We are likely to see winds in the upper atmosphere cranking to Hurricane force. These winds will raise temperature's quickly and there may even be thunderstorms along the coastal plain on Monday. This is going to be a rain maker 🤬 very sad. What little snow that falls east and south of Baltimore will likely only produce an inch before switching to sleet and freezing rain then over to Heavy Rain. There will be snowfall setting up if live from west to Hagerstown to Wisp. Even areas around Carroll and Frederick County could see 3 inches before it changes to rain. There will be some coastal flooding along the western shore of the bay please advise.
Now why is storm moving Inland.
First off let's look at the tele connections. The one thing is we are having a slightly positive NAO this signal sets up blocking to our north. (We want a strong negative phase) So, without the strong blocking and the cold HIGH pressure be just north and west of us. The cold High pressure will deliver the cold air down the Appalachian's chain, and it's called cold air damming. However, the farther east the cold air will be a shallow layer (due to the position to the HIGH PRESSURE. Which means it will be below freezing at the surface but above normal as we move up to layers of the atmosphere. The BIG PLAYER here is the strong SSE winds as the storm approaches, we want NNE winds force the storm more offshore (snow maker) to lock in cold air and this position of the HIGH would so the atmosphere will warm quickly maybe as high as 70F in upper atmosphere which will deliver the heavy rain.
There will be at least 3 more storms before months end, possibly a large one? I will update later but please post your conditions especially storm surge and heavy rain, and if you live west of Hagerstown your snowfall
Estimated Winds
I'm also waiting on new model runs its going to be really hard to get rid of this heavy cold air its only 18F here in Conowingo the Low will follow the warm front so it may move a little more East than the models are saying?
Please be safe.
Phil (lily)😉
